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Reuters GraphicsCOAL, CRUDESimilar to iron ore, China's imports of seaborne coal are also expected to be robust in August, with Refinitiv estimating arrivals of 31.2 million tons, while Kpler expects 34.3 million. Coal imports have been strong since March as the country turned to thermal generation to make up for weaker-than-usual hydropower. Whether China maintains strength in crude imports will largely depend on whether its refiners continue to export large volumes of diesel and gasoline. The rally in crude prices since June should start to show up in China's crude imports from September onwards, given the lag between when cargoes are arranged and delivered. Overall, it appears that factors other than the strength of China's economy are behind the still solid imports of iron ore, coal and crude oil.

Persons: China's, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, Rights, National Bureau of Statistics, Iron, Reuters Graphics, Kpler, Refinitiv Oil, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Qingdao, Shandong province, China, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, Indonesia, OPEC, Saudi Arabia

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Aug 17 (Reuters) - China made a rare draw on crude oil inventories in July as imports softened and refinery processing remained elevated to meet rising domestic demand and a surge in refined fuel exports. China doesn't disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of strategic and commercial stockpiles, but an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of crude processed from the total of crude available from imports and domestic output. The volume of crude available to refiners was 14.36 million bpd, consisting of imports of 10.29 million bpd and domestic output of 4.07 million bpd. Subtracting the refinery throughput from the total crude available leaves a deficit of 510,000 bpd. Imports dropped 2.38 million bpd in July from June's 12.67 million bpd, and were the lowest monthly total since January.

Persons: China doesn't, refiners, Brent, Robert Birsel Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Brent, Refinitiv Oil Research, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, storages, June's, East, Saudi Arabia, Brent, Singapore

Russia remained the top supplier to China, with pipeline and seaborne arrivals of 2.04 million bpd in July, which was down from June's 2.56 million bpd. However, it was still enough to exceed imports from Saudi Arabia, which Refinitiv estimated at 1.82 million bpd in July, down from 1.94 million bpd in June. It's also worth noting that much of the strength in China's crude imports is because of massive inflows into commercial or strategic storages. India's refiners continue to gorge on discounted Russian crude, with arrivals in July estimated at an all-time high of 2.08 million bpd. Japan's July oil imports are estimated at 2.49 million bpd, up from June's 2.11 million bpd, while South Korea's are put at 2.76 million bpd, up from 2.53 million bpd in June.

Persons: Amit Dave LAUNCESTON, It's, China doesn't, India's refiners, Brent, Clyde Russell, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Refinitiv Oil Research, Brent, OPEC, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Vadinar, Gujarat, India, Australia, China, Asia, Russia, June's, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Angola, Oman, East, Iraq, Moscow, South, North Asia

2 oil exporter, said shortly after the Saudi announcement that it would cut crude shipments by 500,000 bpd for August. Taken together, the Saudi and Russian moves mean that the total output cuts pledged by members of the OPEC+ producer group are 5.16 million bpd, or about 5% of daily global demand. The subtext to Saudi calls for stability and balance is that the kingdom wants to keep oil prices at a level it deems high enough. The allocation of additional crude import permits is a factor that could keep crude imports strong in the second half, but it's likely that much will depend on crude prices. This level of stockpile building gives China's refiners options should crude oil prices rise as OPEC+ cuts output.

Persons: refiners, Jamie Freed Organizations: Saudi, Brent, Organization of, Petroleum, International Energy Agency, Refinitiv Oil, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Saudi, OPEC, Russian, CHINA, Beijing, China

An example is the trade in physical cargoes from the Middle East where Unipec, the trading arm of top Chinese refiner Sinopec, has been selling heavily this month. There are several reasons for this, including the output cuts implemented by OPEC+, which effect more Middle East grades than Brent and related light crudes. Asia is expected to import 29.12 million bpd in June, a third consecutive monthly gain and up from 26.47 million bpd in May, according to Refinitiv. China's imports are estimated at 12.5 million bpd, up slightly from May's 12.16 million, while India is forecast to receive 5.24 million bpd, up from 4.74 million bpd in May. Asia's imports from the United States are expected to reach a record high of 2.58 million bpd in June, up from 1.66 million bpd the prior month.

Persons: Unipec, refiners, BRENT, Brent, Stephen Coates Organizations: Unipec, Refinitiv Oil Research, Saudi Aramco, OPEC, Saudi, Aramco, refiners, Brent, . West Texas, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Oman, Dubai, Middle East, Africa, Americas, Asia, Saudi, Brent, China, India, United States, Europe, North America

LAUNCESTON, Australia, June 26 (Reuters) - The extraordinary events in Russia this weekend made for dramatic headlines and the ramifications are likely far from over, but the immediate impact on global crude oil markets is likely to be limited. What is somewhat more certain is that there is no direct threat to Russia's crude oil industry and no reason to believe that shipments from the world's second-largest exporter of the fuel are in any danger. While there appears little imminent threat to Russia's exports of crude oil and refined products, the weekend unrest does raise concerns over the medium and longer terms. Russia's crude oil exports are expected to dip in June, but this is largely the impact of Moscow's earlier announcement of a voluntary 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) additional cut to output. But a wounded and weakened Putin is one more thing the global oil market now has to worry about.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Wagner, Alexander Lukashenko, Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, midmorning, Sonali Paul Organizations: Brent, Refinitiv Oil Research, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Russia, Belarus, midmorning Sydney, OPEC, Moscow, Saudi Arabia

LAUNCESTON, Australia, June 22 (Reuters) - Commodities had a mixed reaction to the latest stimulus measures aimed at boosting the Chinese economy's stuttering post-pandemic recovery. Still, iron ore imports have remained fairly steady in recent months. Commodity analysts Kpler estimated that arrivals in June would be in the order of 98.73 million metric tons, which would be slightly higher than the official customs figure for May of 96.17 million tons. OIL GAINSIn contrast to iron ore's lacklustre response to China's latest stimulus measures, crude oil and copper performed better. Asia's crude oil imports are expected to remain robust in June.

Persons: Lim Boon Heng, LPR, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Commodities, Xinhua, Brent, U.S, . Federal, Refinitiv Oil Research, Shanghai, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Singapore, Beijing, China, May's, India, South Korea

Weakness in China's manufacturing sector has been matched by soft outcomes in other important parts of the world's second-biggest economy. Rather it is construction and manufacturing that propel commodity demand, especially for steel raw material iron ore and for copper. The softness in those sectors is likely to show up in commodity imports in coming months, but not yet. Seaborne iron ore imports are expected at about 93.29 million tonnes, according to Refinitiv data, which would be stronger than the 90.44 million tonnes recorded by customs in April. If this is the case, it's likely that they may consider trimming imports in coming months, especially if the run of soft economic data continues.

Persons: it's, Robert Birsel Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Refinitiv Oil Research, Global, Brent, Singapore, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, March's

LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 19 (Reuters) - Chinese refiners dipped into crude oil inventories in April for the first time in 18 months, as high processing rates exceeded the volume of crude available from both imports and domestic output. The volume of crude available to refiners from imports and domestic output in April was 59.71 million tonnes, equivalent to 14.53 million bpd. For April, the total amount of crude available was 340,000 bpd below the volume processed by refiners, the first time since November 2021 that refiners have drawn on inventories. CRUDE IMPORTS RECOVEROn the crude import side the picture is more interesting, with April arrivals the lowest since January at 10.3 million bpd. For May, it seems likely that imports will recover, with Refinitiv Oil Research estimating arrivals of 11.83 million bpd, a jump of 1.53 million bpd from April's soft outcome.

However, an 18.9% year-on-year rise in China's oil refinery throughput in April to the second-highest level on record helped to keep a floor under crude prices. The IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand this year by 200,000 bpd to a record 102 million bpd. It said China's recovery after the lifting of COVID-19 curbs had surpassed expectations, with demand reaching a record 16 million bpd in March. In another bullish development, the U.S. Department of Energy on Monday said it would buy 3 million barrels of crude oil for delivery in August in a move to begin refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Meanwhile, U.S. commercial crude stocks fell by about 1.3 million barrels last week, according to analysts polled by Reuters.

This was down from March's 27.6 million bpd, which in turn was lower than February's 29.4 million bpd and the 29.13 million bpd in January. Asia crude oil imports vs Brent priceINDIA SLOWS IMPORTSThis could extend to other major buyers in Asia, with the region's second-biggest importer India showing signs of moderating crude appetite in April. Imports were estimated at 4.60 million bpd in April, down from the eight-month high of 5.02 million bpd in March. Russian crude is also winning against Saudi oil in China, with April arrivals of 2.10 million bpd beating out the 1.73 million bpd from the Middle East's top exporter. The overall view on Asia's imports is that April showed a loss of momentum after a strong start to the year.

India's crude imports from Russia are expected to reach a record high in April as Asia's second-biggest oil buyer increasingly turns away from its traditional suppliers in the Middle East. As Russian oil was increasingly sanctioned and shunned by European buyers and some in Asia, such as Japan, the steep discounts on offer led to India's refiners buying increasing volumes. The Middle East's share of India's imports likely dropped to 39.8% in April, according to Refinitiv, down from the 12-month average of 56%. While the buying of Russian crude is fairly broad-based among India's refiners, the biggest buyer is Reliance Industries (RELI.NS), which operates a 1.24 million bpd refinery complex in Jamnagar. Kpler data shows that this complex is expected to receive 20.87 million barrels of Russian crude in April, or about 30% of the total volume of India's imports.

For the first quarter, China's refined product exports were up 59.8% to 18.2 million tonnes, equivalent to about 1.62 million bpd. For the first quarter in 2022, refined fuel exports were 1.01 million bpd, meaning they have risen by 610,000 bpd in the same period this year. IMPACT OF FUEL EXPORTSThere are also several other questions for the market to ponder, such as do strong Chinese refined fuel exports, while increasing China's crude imports, actually result in lower demand elsewhere as China's products displace supplies from other exporters? It's likely that China's refined product exports will remain elevated in April as refiners use up their quotas and Beijing encourages exports as part of efforts to boost economic activity. Overall, the current picture in China is one of strong crude imports and even stronger refined product exports.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 6 (Reuters) - Asia's imports of crude oil stayed at relatively robust levels in March, as strong inflows to the top-importing region's heavyweights China and India offset weaker demand among some others buyers. Total March crude imports were estimated by Refinitiv Oil Research at 116.73 million tonnes, equivalent to 27.60 million barrels per day (bpd). This was up almost 4% from February's 112.32 million tonnes, but down 6.1% on a daily basis from February's 29.4 million bpd, and also below January's 29.13 million bpd. However, the first three months of 2023 were stronger than every month in 2022, except for November when Asia's crude imports were 29.10 million bpd. Saudi Arabia reclaimed its place as China's top supplier with 8.08 million tonnes, or a share of 16.4%, edging out Russia at 7.95 million tonnes, or a share of 16.1%.

The rising spending on infrastructure and signs of less weakness in property investment are already showing up in China's iron ore imports. China's steel output also rose in the first two months of 2023, gaining 5.6% from the same period last year to reach 168.7 million tonnes. Rather, the data seems to be broadly supportive of a solid start to achieving China's stated economic growth target of 5% for 2023. It's likely that China's crude imports will accelerate from the second quarter onwards as the country continues to reopen after abandoning its strict zero-COVID policy. This would be up from February's 4.96 million tonnes and also above the 4.77 million from March last year.

However, exports of both fuels may drop in March with Refinitiv forecasting diesel shipments of just 120,000 bpd, which would be a nine-month low. Gasoline exports are also likely to slide in March, with Refinitiv estimating shipments at around 82,000 bpd. Improving domestic demand, planned refinery maintenance and lower profit margins in regional product margins are the main reasons that China's exports of diesel and gasoline are expected to drop sharply this month. China diesel exports vs Singapore gasoil crackTIGHTER MARKET? India's diesel exports were 470,000 bpd in February, the most since December 2021, according to data from commodity analysts Kpler, while its gasoline shipments were about 314,000 bpd, the most since April last year.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, March 7 (Reuters) - China's imports of major commodities showed both the potential for an acceleration this year and the reality that economic momentum takes time to build. Crude oil imports were 84.06 million tonnes for the first two month, which is equivalent to 10.40 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the data, released on Tuesday. Where there was signs of an economy emerging from its now abandoned zero-COVID policy was in imports of iron ore and coal. However, the coal imports were largely in line with December's figure of 30.91 million tonnes and November's 32.31 million, suggesting that demand is steady at relatively robust volumes. Seaborne arrivals in the first two months were 47.72 million tonnes, according to commodity analysts Kpler, suggesting that arrivals overland from neighbouring countries were around 13 million tonnes.

Rather than being driven by concerns over the potential loss of Russian shipments of diesel, the market in Asia appears more reflective of ongoing strength in diesel exports from China and India. China is expected to export about 2.4 million tonnes of diesel in February, equivalent to about 643,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to data compiled by Refinitiv Oil Research. This would be up from January shipments of around 1.78 million tonnes and 2.32 million in December. Almost 88% of India's February diesel exports are heading West of Suez as refiners on the country's west coast take advantage of the gap left by Russian diesel exiting Europe. It also appears that Russia is still able to find buyers for its diesel, despite losing its biggest market as Europe used to buy about 500,000 bpd of Russian diesel prior to the war in Ukraine.

If China's physical demand does accelerate from March, it may prove Aramco made the correct call in raising its OSP. Saudi crude is sold under long-term contracts that typically allow for variations in the volumes sought by refiners, or offered by Aramco. It's likely that Chinese refiners will first turn to Russian crude if they are boosting imports, as will refiners in India, Asia's second-biggest oil importer. This is set to be surpassed this month, with Kpler tracking seaborne arrivals of Russian fuel oil in China at 6.75 million barrels. It appears that China is already buying more Russian crude and fuel oil.

China's imports were assessed at 10.98 million bpd in January, down from December's 11.37 million bpd and November's 11.42 million bpd. Asia's crude oil imports vs Brent priceFUEL EXPORTSAnother factor is the price of crude oil and the interplay between China's inventories and its exports of refined products. INDIA RECORDIndia, the region's second-biggest importer, saw January arrivals hit a record high of 5.29 million bpd, up from December's 4.78 million bpd. Other major Asian oil buyers also saw gains in January, with South Korea importing 3.11 million bpd, up from 2.85 million bpd in December, while Singapore imported 1.65 million bpd, up from 910,000 bpd. Japan was the exception, with January imports dropping to 2.83 million bpd from December's 2.96 million bpd.

China's diesel exports rose for a second month in December, hitting 2.79 million tonnes, up 32.8% from November's 2.10 million, according to official data released on Jan. 18. This is because they have been ramping up imports of cheaper Russian crude, thus lowering their input costs. China diesel exports vs gasoil crackRUSSIAN DIESELWhile the oil market has largely been able to work around the exit of Russian crude from Europe by re-routing it to Asia, it may be trickier to replicate this with the loss of Russian refined products. Some Asian fuel importers, such as Pakistan, the Philippines and Indonesia, may be happy to buy Russian fuel, but the discounts would have to be steep. What's more likely is that Asia's diesel and gasoline markets tighten as the EU ban on Russian fuel comes into effect.

Russian crude export volumes have held up since Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, but only because China and India have stepped in to buy steeply discounted Russian oil. But while China's crude imports have been rising, a greater share appears to have been captured by Russia. If imports from Russia are excluded, it shows that June imports were 6.97 million bpd and November's were 9.52 million bpd. The increase for imports from all sources in November over June was 2.67 million bpd, but the total ex-Russia was 2.55 million bpd. This raises the possibility that Russia's share of China's crude imports will rise even higher.

The answer is while any increase in China's crude oil imports may drive crude oil prices higher, a corresponding increase in fuel exports may weaken regional refining margins. In other words, there are many moving parts to the overall balance between China's crude import demand and regional fuel markets. Another point is that so far there is little evidence that China's crude oil imports are recovering. China doesn't disclose its stockpiles, but it likely added to inventories in 2022 even as total crude oil imports declined. China's crude oil demand isn't necessarily a one-way bullish street, even if the re-opening from COVID-19 is a success.

One is that China is continuing to build crude oil stockpiles, even though its refinery processing rates have risen strongly in recent months. But despite the solid gain in refinery processing, it appears that China is still building up crude oil inventories in commercial or strategic storage tanks. The total volume of crude available from imports and domestic production in November was 15.46 million bpd, consisting of imports of 11.37 million bpd and local output of 4.08 million bpd. China imported an estimated 1.80 million bpd from Russia in November, according to Refinitiv Oil Research, exceeding the 1.69 million bpd supplied by Saudi Arabia. China total crude available vs refinery runsDIFFERENT CRUDE DRIVERSOverall, there are several dynamics at work in the outlook for China's crude oil imports.

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